Showing posts with label account deficit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label account deficit. Show all posts

Sunday, January 31, 2010

The Rude Awakening of 2010 Vol 1

The heyday of the Bush-Obama bailout frenzy is coming to an end.
The bailout's base of public support, tenuous from the outset, is collapsing. Its chief architects — Geithner and Bernanke — are politically dead or dying despite Bernake’s re-enlistment for another hitch. Obama adviser Paul Volcker and FDIC Chairman Bair are gaining rapidly in influence.

 
Suddenly and with growing momentum, America is shifting into a brand new phase of the crisis …

 
On Jan. 30 , Bloomberg reported that New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who anticipated the financial crisis, called the fourth quarter surge in U.S. economic growth, despite all the MSM ballyhoo “very dismal and poor” because it relied on temporary factors.
 
“The headline number will look large and big, but actually when you dissect it, it’s very dismal and poor,” Roubini told Bloomberg Television in an interview at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “I think we are in trouble.”
 
Roubini said while the world’s largest economy won’t relapse into recession, unemployment will rise from the current 10 percent, posing social and political challenges.

 
“It’s going to feel like a recession even if technically we’re not going to be in a recession,”

 
You and I knew all along; we were not among those sleepwalking through the storm. Nor did we ever support those who stumbled from one ill-conceived government rescue to another.

 
We knew all along that TARP was a classic financial blunder and ultimate moral hazard: It rewarded the guilty, while shafting innocent taxpayers.

 
We knew all along that the Fed's zero-interest-rate policy is a ticking time bomb: It subsidizes and stimulates The Casino we call Wall Street, while it robs America's prudent savers of nearly every penny they hoped to earn in interest and dividends.

 
We also knew all along that the original cause of the housing bubble was congressional policy & their money-printing machine — and that Bernanke's new machine has been running at light speed by comparison.

 
Throughout this entire crisis, we could plainly see the emperor had no clothes. What's changing is that, now, many others — including some who engineered the bailouts in the first place — finally see it too.

That's why …
  • Public opinion regarding the president's handling of the federal deficit has nosedived.
  • Voters say they want the deficit reduced even if it hurts the economy.
  • Paul Volcker — previously shunned and ignored by most of the Obama team — has re-emerged from the shadows and regained the limelight. He's pressing the administration to get tough with Wall Street. And ultimately, he could push Obama to change course on key aspects of the bailouts. 
Whether he will retain that standing in the heat of battle or in the wake of a renewed banking crisis remains to be seen.  Also, the last time Volker had this much suasion with the White House, the resident was Jimmy Carter. For those of you who are too young to remember, that didn't turn out too well for the American taxpayer. Many of the policies that brought us to the brink go back to the Carter administration.

 
But for now, his reappearance on the front lines is a metaphor for the sweeping mood change among voters and a possible policy shift at the White House.

 
But, alas, there is still no one of stature standing up to the biggest public nemesis of all — the Congress & the intrenched government bureaucracy itself.

 
There is no single organization strong enough to stop Washington from sacrificing our children's future on the altar of a false prosperity. No one able to restore the prudence and balance that can sustain our greatness over time, except the people themselves.

More later.

Your Thoughts?

Omar P. Bounds III  A.A.R.E., C.E.S., G.P.P.A.
The Bounds Auction Company

 

 

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Chinese to limit Treasury purchases in 2010


Supporting the Beach Ball!



The Blogger & Peter Schiff

This could easily be the most important story in the end of year run up of political & economic Bombshells - and it is likely to be completely over looked। With all smoke being blown up everyone's butts by the shenanigans surrounding the Senate health care debacle and the Copenhagen farce, this little story copied below got buried।

As Dollar Busters go - this very well could stand as the " other shoe" that many Dollar watchers have been predicting.

In The Fall of 2009, I attended a talk by given by Euro Pacific's President and erstwhile US Senate Candidate for Conn., Peter Schiff , where he predicted exactly this scenario. Schiff, a long time dollar critic and gold tout asks the question that no one in the US Government wants to hear:
When will "they" ( foreign sovereignty funds & the Chinese in particular ) stop buying our debt?

"The situation is not unlike a beach ball being supported by the hand of an outstretched arm " Schiff remarked. "Our currency & economy are that beach ball and the Chinese purchases of our Treasury notes are the outstretched arm. What happens to the beach ball when that arm is withdrawn? "

As this dollar watcher see it, there are two scenarios for the beach ball in the near term, neither of which is appealing.

#1। The "arm" is suddenly withdrawn and the market for US debt goes into collapse।The "Ball" gets dropped!
Whether it bounces or hits like a ripe melon is academic?

#2 The "arm" still supports the ball, but as the US's "beach ball" get heavier, becoming more like a 16 lbs shot put, the effort, as in the cost required to support it will go up.
The cost of the US debt goes up substantially.
What is the interest only payment on 14 Trillion?

Currently, the greatest influence on the "arm" is that most of the other "balls" in the game are getting heavier as well।
Omar PBounds III
The Bounds Auction Company

Published on ShanghaiDaily.com (http://www.shanghaidaily.com/)
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2009/200912/20091218/article_423054.htm

Harder to buy US Treasuries
Created: 2009-12-18 0:13:35
Author:Zhou Xin and Jason Subler

IT is getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US's shrinking current-account gap is reducing supply of dollars overseas, a Chinese central bank official said yesterday.

The comments by Zhu Min, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, referred to the overall situation globally, not specifically to China, the biggest foreign holder of US government bonds.

Chinese officials generally are very careful about commenting on the dollar and Treasuries, given that so much of its US$2.3 trillion reserves are tied to their value, and markets always watch any such comments closely for signs of any shift in how it manages its assets.

China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange reaffirmed this month that the dollar stands secure as the anchor of the currency reserves it manages, even as the country seeks to diversify its investments.

In a discussion on the global role of the dollar, Zhu told an academic audience that it was inevitable that the dollar would continue to fall in value because Washington continued to issue more Treasuries to finance its deficit spending.

He then addressed where demand for that debt would come from.

"The United States cannot force foreign governments to increase their holdings of Treasuries," Zhu said, according to an audio recording of his remarks. "Double the holdings? It is definitely impossible."

"The US current account deficit is falling as residents' savings increase, so its trade turnover is falling, which means the US is supplying fewer dollars to the rest of the world," he added. "The world does not have so much money to buy more US Treasuries."

China continues to see its foreign exchange reserves grow, albeit at a slower pace than in past years, due to a large trade surplus and inflows of foreign investment. They stood at US$2.3 trillion at the end of September.